Confidence Interval: Will Marijuana Be Legal Everywhere In The U.S. By 2024? l FiveThirtyEight

It’s another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel …


  1. I would barely even consider this an an analysis. More like a whimsical superficial gut feeling. For one thing, economic impacts associated with the pandemic (neg) and legalizing cannabis (pos) are linked in that legalizing cannabis creates much needed jobs and tax revenue. She also did not address social equity drivers (racial disparities in the war on drugs) that the Democrats and many Republicans want to address. So the idea that Democrats have more important issues on their plate simply ignores how these issues are interrelated.

  2. I think you can be fairly confident in federal decriminalisation passing before 2024, or even 2022. That’s more than popular enough. Appeals to democrats as progressive legislation, appeals to republicans as legislation devolving power to states.

    I don’t picture all 51 jurisdictions making it fully legal on a state level though. This is a country with Utah in it.

  3. What a colossal waste of time, and monetary and human resources, marijuana prohibition is. An excellent example of how our government is no longer representative, no longer represents the popular will. Quit wasting all of our time and decriminalize & legalize across the board, recreational and medical and any other arbitrary category I'm forgetting

  4. Voters opposed to legalization are more likely to make this a voting issue than the pro side is. That is why voter initiatives have been successful, but legislation elsewhere has not.

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